Last month the Trump administration put forth a 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. The plan at first glance looked like a complete capitulation to Russia. A second and third glance does not make the plan look any better. It calls for a reduction of the Ukraine military, a promise to not attack Russia or try to reclaim lost territory and blocking Ukraine from ever becoming a NATO member. The rest of the plan is much the same, Ukraine gives and Russia takes. While Ukraine was not a party to this they have agreed to the concept. Trump being more of a businessman then a politician sees this plan as an opening of a negotiation and has said it is not his final offer. What does that mean?
While any analysis must begin with the assumption that it means exactly what it says and that it must be taken as a final offer. As a former intelligence analyst I must assume at some point the position of a red team or devil’s advocate. In this position I will look at as many alternative reasons as possible.
From the beginning it had to have been known that this proposal was totally unacceptable to Ukraine. It gives Russia everything it wanted with nothing in return for Ukraine. But what about the other parties that must be considered, especially Europe.
Trump for years has chastised Europe for its lack of decisive action on anything. The EU and its member nations have supported Ukraine by backing the U.S. and suppling arms. With this proposal European security is threatened as this gives yet another win to Russia along with its victory over Georgia and the recognition of independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are in fact vassal states to Russia. Then there was the Russia annexation of Crimea, support to Syria and interference in Africa, among others.
The first alternative analysis therefore is that the proposal was designed to force Europe to step up and be more committed to the defense of Ukraine and to take responsibility for its neighborhood.
While it was assumed that Ukraine would outright reject the proposal there appears to be some backdoor negotiations that have allowed them to accept with the provision it was not final as Trump had said. While Russia should have accepted without hesitation there appear to be some aspects that have made them hesitate to accept. It maybe that while it calls for provisions in Ukrainian law that they will never join NATO there is an opening for them to become full members of the European Union which does carry some mutual defense provisions. The true aim of the Russian invasion was to take full control of Ukraine membership in the EU would be a strong block.
The second alternative analysis is that it would be rejected by Russia and therefore open the door for a stronger U.S. and European presence in Ukraine and block Russia both militarily and economically. It would also allow Europe to release frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
To make it clear I have no direct knowledge of these negotiations and the observations are made based on years of analysis and a study of history. I also read art of the deal and the follow on books that give me some insight into Trumps thinking.
pleasethink1 