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Trump MBA: The Art of Negotiating 101


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While everyone is concentrating on the recent interview of an overaged porn star trying to extend her 15 minutes of fame, while writing a cheap crime story, the president has again improved the US position in the world. With the announcement that President Trump was going to impose a tariff on steel and aluminum, the economic experts went nuts. Tariffs are counterproductive, tariffs will cost more jobs then they save, this will start an all-out trade war with the rest of the world, etcetera. The problem is that we have been taught over the years to only see the close in results on a narrow timeline. We have lost the ability to see a larger picture over an extended period. In other words, we have lost the ability to think and reason out situations.
Much of this has been the result of politicians learning to respond to news cycles in the past and to the present day 24/7 news coverage. Politicians on both sides of the aisle have learned to be circumspect in any statement and not take a firm position. The exceptions are those who demand ideological purity. Then along comes Donald J. Trump, a complete amateur in the field who speaks his mind and is willing to change position as needed to accomplish a needed end. Add to this the fact that he accomplished the impossible by defeating the anointed one for the presidency causing the news media to declare all out war. We need now return the American people to the point where they can think and reason.
Trump is a negotiator and as anyone who has negotiated knows, the first thing to do is set up the conditions of the negotiation. In the case of the tariffs it appears that the initial conditions were just that, setting the stage. Since the declaration of the tariffs the President has exempted counties such as Canada and Mexico and has begun trade negotiation with several others. One such negotiation was with South Korea which has now agreed to reduce the amount of steel exported and to double the number of US manufactured cars to be sold in the country. While South Korea is the third largest exporter of steel to the US we have also begun to negotiate with China which has now come to the table.
We must also look to the claims of the tariffs on US production and employment, which the talking heads scream will be negatively impacted. To begin most steel used in the US is domestically produced. Of what is imported 26% comes from Canada and Mexico which we have said is already exempted from the tariffs. South Korea accounts for an additional 10% of imports. To find the rest we see Brazil contributes 14%, which now brings us to 50% of all imports. The rest of the worlds top ten contributes another 27% and the balance of the world adds 23%. All this imported steel represents around 25% of all steel used in the US. Domestic with US mills are running at about 75% capacity. This means US mills can cover the loss of imported steel. The problem is not in the amount of steel however it’s the cost. All of this is not to confuse the issue but to point out that this issue, unlike what many are claiming, is complicated and needs thought, not emotion to reason out.
Because of several factors US manufactured steel is more expensive then imported steel, tariffs are designed to compensate for the difference. Which leaves two potentials, products that use steel will increase in price or the price of those products must come down. There is also the probability of US steel manufactures finding ways to reduce the cost of steel, which likely would cost jobs as efficiencies increase. The Trump administration has cut several cumbersome regulations and passed a tax bill that gives both corporations and most Americans additional income therefore we can look to market equilibrium containing pricing.
What have we learned, first that we should not react to actions without thinking about them in the long term. Second many negotiations begin without the intent that they will meet all the initial demands. Which brings us to the conclusion that nothing is black and white. That all things are negotiable if both side understand the rules and that obviously both sides don’t always understand the rules. There will be an impact on US markets, but it will not be the end of the world.

Syrian Kurds, Turks and Kawa the Blacksmith


Kawa

The recent actions of Turkish forces and their allies have shown their racist intent by treating the people of Afrin as barbarians of old treated those they conquered. Looting, murder and rape are the order of the day. The west has seen a fair share of this type of barbarity. The Spanish conquistadors, Manifest Destiny and the destruction of indigenous people as the US pushed west, any war in Europe, and the rape of Nanking. History has not been kind to the perpetrators of these acts, and they will judge the Turks more harshly, in modern times this should not have been allowed but given the history of the region it should have been expected and stopped. The Turkish Government must be held fully accountable for this tragedy and brought to justice. As a member of NATO Turkey must be held to a higher standard.
The Turks have claimed the purpose of their attack on Afrin is part of the war on terrorism since the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military the YPG controlled Afrin. It is Turkey’s claim that the PYD is wholly part of the Turkish Kurdish group known as the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for almost 40 years. While the two groups can be considered affiliated politically they are not one monolithic Kurdish movement as the Turks would believe. The PYD and the PKK may believe in the same basic concepts, but they have shown they will apply them differently. The PKK has been in direct conflict with the Turkish military inside of Turkey while the PYD/YPG has never attacked Turkey or its military. Non-the-less Turkey holds to the fantasy that they are one in the same and hopes if they say it often enough the world will believe. The west does not believe and have armed trained and fought with the Syrian Kurds against ISIS since the beginning.
In a widely distributed photo a of statue seen being torn down and defaced, is a statue of Kawa. Kawa has been identified as a Kurdish hero. Kawa is a mythological figure in Kurdish culture. A blacksmith who helped the people of an ancient Mesopotamian kingdom overthrow a cruel king and restore peace and prosperity. This was the beginning of a new day for the Kurds, Newroz in Kurdish, and Newroz is the Kurdish celebration of the new year on March 21th. Kawa is held up as a symbol to the Kurds that fighting for your rights you can overcome adversity.
The attack on Kawa’s statue not only indicates the level of destruction the Turks put Kurds through, but the level of hatred. This is an attack on the Kurdish culture which fits into Turkish history. Following the end of the Ottoman empire and during the establishment of the modern Turkish Republic, Kurdish identity came under attack. For most of the 20th century the Kurdish language was outlawed in Turkey, no books, newspapers, music or celebrations of Kurdish holidays were allowed. Recently these Turkish Jim Crow laws were removed, and Kurdish culture allowed to come into the light. This was a short-lived movement and once again all things Kurd are falling under Turkish censorship. In a country that claims to be democratic one in every three Kurdish politicians are in jail. This includes members of Parliament who have their immunity voted away and charged with supporting terrorism.
The Kurds have proven themselves to be a strong ally of the US and have shed blood for us. They have established the closest thing to a democratic government we have seen in the region. Turkey, once a democratic ally and strongly secular is sliding into a one-man dictatorship basing itself on a desire to reestablish the Ottoman empire, or at least restore lost territory.
Turkey must be brought back to its democratic roots or censured by the west and removed from NATO. Turkey has relied too much and for too long on the blind belief that they must be held in NATO at any cost. The reality is in the new paradigm of the Middle East the Kurds must be protected and allowed to continue their march toward democracy. The world must once again believe that the US will protect its friends. For some parts of Kurdish culture, the road forward is longer then for others, if however, we do not help we will only have one more enemy in the region rather then a strong friend and ally.

The coming of Bolton


 

With the announcement that John Bolton is going to replace H.R. McMaster as the National Security Advisor a rash of reporting has come out condemning the former UN Ambassador as a hot head and a war monger. His early rejection of the JCPOA (the Iran Deal) as bad for the world and his pronouncement that the US has a legitimate right to attack North Korean to end its ability to threaten the world with nuclear war. In an article in the Atlantic his statement on North Korea was called a radical idea and that it risks the “most destructive war in living memory.” These types of melodramatic declarations do nothing to help an informed decision. I would say the most destructive war in living memory was World War II. It must be pointed out that WWII began because democracies failed to confront dictatorships in a timely manner.
When the Obama administration was making its argument for the Iran deal the president told the nation there were two options, diplomacy or war. There of course many options in any scenario, and presenting only the extremes is a treacherous path to take. Let us look at a potential third alternative, diplomacy with the threat of war. We have tried diplomacy with North Korea for over 25 years we no success. If Kim Jung-un is of the opinion that it will always be diplomacy followed by sanction relief, followed by jettisoning what ever agreement you came to and carrying on your nuclear program until next time, diplomacy will not work.
In the case of Iran we negotiated away all leverage and financed Iran’s terrorist proxies. Kim can see the results of the JCPOA and how toothless the enforcement provisions are. Why then should North Korea negotiate in earnest? Presently the answer is John Bolton. With Bolton advising the president and Mike Pompeo at State, both hawks, the North Korean calculus must change. Hawk by the way does not mean go to war over everything but stand firm on principles and work for the best but never shy away from a credible threat of war. This is what Bolton brings to the table, not a crazy man but a firm man. If he can bring fear to the other side so be it. I suggest reading about the Cuban Missile Crisis, perhaps Bolton can chair EXCOMM.

The Presumption of Innocence


 

Just a quick word on Roy Moore. I think the man is an idiot who should not be in a position to represent the Republican party in any capacity. Having said that I also believe in justice and its proper application, By that I mean in the United States there must always be a presumption of innocence. The Latin phase is “ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat” (the burden of proof is on the one who declares, not on one who denies.) In other words, it is up to the accuser to prove that anything happened and that the accused is responsible. While this is used in criminal cases it must also be used in our everyday belief in fair play.

 

The accusations occurred 40 years ago and as such will be almost impossible to prove. The only things that can be judged are the facts of Judge Moore’s life and actions. I find it too consequential that the accusations have also come after it is too late for his named to be removed.

 

The people of Alabama must now decide the fate of Roy Moore. The rest of us must decide if we will find truth in facts or just go along with a crowd mentality.    

 

The Kurds, Independence and Why the US Should Care


Kurdish american flag

 

In northern Iraq there is an area known as the Kurdistan Region, a self-governing area comprised officially of three governorates, Dohuk, Erbil and Soleimani, four unofficially with the addition of Kirkuk. The Kurdish people are a separate population with their own language, customs and culture. As was most of the Middle East they were part of the Ottoman Empire for 600 years, until the end of the First World War. Following Turkey’s defeat, the allies, France and England, divided the Middle East into separate countries. The division was not intended to right any past wrongs or concerned with cultural or linguistic differences, but to serve as new colonies for Europe, with interest in oil production. The Kurdish people saw this as an opportunity to become a free and independent country and such was promised by the Treaty of Sèvres that ended the war with Turkey and was designed to break up the Ottoman empire. For reasons best left to your own research a second treaty, the Treaty of Lausanne was written, and the hope of independence was removed. The Kurds have been fighting for the right to their own country ever since.
On September 25th, a referendum will be held in the Kurdish region to determine the desire of the Kurdish people to seek full independence from Iraq. This referendum is expected to pass by greater than 95%. Then what?
Most western nations, including the United States, have opposed Kurdish independence for many reasons. Some of the reasons are political such as Turkey will be opposed, others are emotional such as the entire Middle East will fall apart if we allow for a separate Kurdistan. This last assumes a stable region, which it is not. These arguments have been made and discussed and dissected for many years and I will not go into the reasons why Kurdish independence should be opposed or argue the points others have put forward in opposition. I intend to simply argue why there should be a free and independent Kurdistan.
What makes a country/nation is a combination of a common language, common culture and shared values, or simply stated a uniqueness that sets them apart from others. Without this uniqueness, there is always problems. Forcing different people to adopt other cultures or languages has proven to be disastrous. For many years the Kurdish language was not allowed in the Kurdish regions of Iraq. Kurdish culture was suppressed and the Kurds themselves were removed from their homes and replaced by Arabs from the south. Surrounded by Arab states, Turkey and Iran, Young Kurds do not speak Arabic, Turkish or Persian. While most Kurds are Muslim there is a thriving Christian community of Kurds as well as Yezidi (a culture all its own). There is also a diversity of political thought, not always as readily accepted, but accepted. Nowhere else in the region will you find such a wide-ranging acceptance of diversity.
After centuries, we see the desire for independence in the Scots and prior to this the Irish, today we also see the continuing independence movement by the Basque . Currently we have seen a resurrection of older nations in eastern Europe such as Serbia, Bosnia, etc. The common thread has been language and culture. Iraq is not a natural country, it was made-up by foreign powers. The Kurds have nothing in common with their Arab neighbors, not language or culture or history. To allow the regional population to redraw the boundaries is not earth shattering but natural. Is Kurdistan perfect, no. Will there be problems, yes. But at the end of the day it’s the right thing to do. As a nation born of revolution and a desire to be free we have an obligation to help this new nation in every way possible. At the end of the First World War President Wilson made it clear in his 14 points that “XII. The Turkish portion of the present Ottoman Empire should be assured a secure sovereignty, but the other nationalities which are now under Turkish rule should be assured an undoubted security of life and an absolutely unmolested opportunity of autonomous development…” Kurdish children are more familiar with Wilson’s 14 points than most American adults.
It is time to fulfill the American promise to the Kurds.

What History Teaches Us About the Danger of Ignoring North Korean Threats and Actions


NK over Japan

Yesterday North Korea launched a missile that was capable of carrying a nuclear war head that flew over Japan.  This is not the first time NK has violated Japanese sovereignty but it is potentially the most dangerous. To be certain this was not a test but a message. The message is that NK can and will attack its enemies with nuclear weapons. The world is outraged and terrified, except apparently Russia, which has said it was US and South Korean actions that forced NK to launch this missile. This of course was some of the same logic that certain parties used in the past to explain the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the US made them do it.

We are moving down a path that the world has seen before, and has never learned from.  Kim Jung-Un is a ruthless dictator with no moral compass or sense of the world. He is testing the US and regional powers to see how far he can go. He will continue to push until he is convinced of his invincibility. At this point the world will pay a terrible price for its restraint. It is just a question as to which country he will fire a nuke.

We have seen this with Hitler and Stalin and more recently with Kaddafi, Saddam Hussain, and Assad. In each case the world waited until the need for force was required to end aggression and millions died. The argument has always been the same, use diplomacy, use sanctions and wait them out, use of force will only beget force and war. The reality is that the longer you wait to stop someone like Kim the more devastating the war will be, and war is his aim. He has deluding himself into believing the world will always back down and he will always get whatever he wants. There is no one to tell him differently and his life to date has shown he will always get what he wants.

War is terrible, and nuclear war devastating. I do not want war but the way we are going I don’t see a way out of it short of a preemptive strike and the removal of this dictator. In the end, it will be the least deadly path. History however has shown that we will not take that path and there will be another devastating war that could have been avoided.              

There Where Many Sides in Charlottesville


non-zero-sum

There is a game known as zero-sum total. According to Webster’s this is defined as “a situation in which one person or group can win something only by causing another person or group to lose it.” We see this today in the form of political rhetoric. The President seemed to cause a major political uproar by saying that both sides in Charlottesville, VA could be assigned blame. This went against the grain of those that felt that blame can only be assessed to one side or the other.

Now the Neo-Nazi, White Supremacist, KKK assholes have no place in today’s society. Under zero-sum total then any group who opposes them must be on the side of all that is good. But those groups included violent, race biased organizations that show a great amount of intolerance toward anyone who disagrees in any way to their beliefs. These include the Antifa, BLM and anarchist. So how do we blame both for suborning violence.  

It is easy really, assign blame to anyone or any group that is to blame. This is referred to as non-zero-sum. When zero sum is used when the problem is non-zero-sum a problem arises. This last is known as Zero-sum bias. For more I will direct you to a paper written by Daniel V. Meegan, Department of Psychology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada titled “Zero-sum bias: perceived competition despite unlimited resources,” I will let the reader look it up and read. The problem is that what happened in Charlottesville VA is taken as Zero-sum, the Nazis are evil and therefore wrong. Anyone against them must therefore be in the right. In fact, the activities must be seen as non-zero-sum, the extremes were both wrong and evil but loud to be the only options seen.

What stops us in many cases is another problem called Identity politics, defined as “a tendency for people of a particular religion, race, social background, etc., to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad-based party politics.” Much of this today revolves around race, ideology and by extension religion. In identity politics, a person takes a position based on race or ideology and will oppose anyone not of that race or ideology, regardless of facts. The problem with identity politics is that it forces anyone not in your group to be clumped into the “other” group.

No person or organization should be given a pass because of who they oppose. Evil is evil and left or right they should be denounced. The clumping now becomes a problem. While calling out both extremes we find others in the mix of a demonstration. In Charlottesville, the thugs where there to protest the removal of a statue of Robert E. Lee. There were also those who opposed the removal based on cultural heritage beliefs and others opposed to the destruction or rewriting of history. I was born and raised in NJ and have no affection for Lee or the south having been raised to believe them traitors. But I was also raised with a strong sense of history and that we need to always remember history in order to move forward.  There were also those who truly believed the statues no longer represented Charlottesville and wanted them removed. If we consider the argument to be non-zero-sum then the middle groups should be allowed to come up with a decision that would be a compromise agreed on by all parties. This of course would require us to return to an old political activity known as compromise.    

In the end, we must all look at every aspect of a problem and be prepared to support the group we agree with. We must also be prepared to see neither side as holding our beliefs and values. Before you reach a conclusion based on a personal bias PLEASETHINK that both sides may be wrong. Use Charlottesville as an example where two extremes were wrong and the middle was ignored.    

 

The Need for a Military Option in Diplomacy


Arms and Influence

The recent flare-up between the United States and North Korea has many pundits and politician on the verge of a nervous breakdown. The thought of using nuclear weapons should cause the world to pause and think and do all that is in the power of nations to stop it, but it cannot be unthinkable. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was a doctrine used during the cold war that kept both sides from striking the other. With-in this, the most important part is ASSURED. There was no doubt on either side that the other would respond to an attack with a devastating counterattack. President Trump is returning the military option to diplomacy and it is not a new or radical idea.

In his book in 1532, “The Prince” Niccolo Machiavelli asked “… is it better to be loved then feared or feared then loved…” The answer obviously was feared. Am I endorsing Machiavelli, of course not, but sometimes he does make a good point. Now let’s move a little forward in time to 1832. Following his death, the book, “On War” by the Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz was published, one point he made was that war is a continuation of foreign policy by other means. There are many interpretations of what he meant, but all agree that at a minimum when diplomacy fails, the state still has the military option. How does all this tie in. In 1966, Thomas Schelling an American economist and professor of foreign affairs, national security, nuclear strategy, and arms control wrote “Arms and Influence”, in the first chapter he wrote about the “diplomacy of violence.” The diplomacy of violence states, among other things, that regardless of the size and capability of your military, should your enemy perceive that it will not be used then the deterrent effect is nullified. In other words, if the military option is off the table then the bad guy has nothing to fear. This is the lesson the leaders of today have forgotten. That what has been passed down to us by all the above and others is that without the military option there is no diplomatic option.

Recent actions by the United States over the last few administrations indicate to the world we will not use the full strength of our military. Iraq and Afghanistan notwithstanding, we have failed to react to most major crisis’s in the world with the military option in the background. Russian activity in Georgia and Ukraine had sanctions put in place. In Iran, a very bad deal was made that will allow them to have nukes in a short time. In Iran both President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry told the world without the Iran Deal the ONLY other possibility was war. This then took the military option off the table and made for a one-sided solution that will have serious negative consequences.

Today we are facing a rogue state that has been allowed to progress to the point of being able to attack the United States mainland with nukes. The leader of North Korea has shown he has no moral compass or world view. What sanctions will work on Kim Jong-un? He lets his people stave and believes himself to be a god, as do the people in North Korea.

If the world is made to understand the US has placed the military option back on the table and is willing to use it then that fear may move those nations that can force a change in North Korea to do so. Hopefully it will not take long for the world to understand that Donald Trump will use the military and that if that is truly a terrifying thought then they will act to eliminate the threat of a nuclear North Korea. If not, the United States must do what is necessary to protect itself and its allies.

Its Decision Time on the North Korean Problem


ICBM

Before we get started I ask the anti-Trump folks to read through and think. Please don’t just troll and say, yea, but Trump is… Ok now, Kim Jung-Un is an unstable and irrational person. He is the son and grandson of leaders considered gods. He himself is considered a god by the people of North Korea and is considered infallible. I have read a lot of experts and others say things such as he would not launch a nuclear attack on the US because he would know it is suicide. No, he does not, he sees the world through a child’s eye. He has no world view or world experience and there is no one around him who will tell him he is wrong. He has killed his brother and uncle and others who have crossed him. Additionally, successive US administrations have failed to make any permanent impression on the Kim’s and they watched as the Obama administration and the world caved to Iran. The worst thing President Obama and SecState Kerry did in those negotiations was continually repeat that without the deal the only other possible outcomes were war. This taught Kim that the threat of war was enough to force the US to back down.
The one overriding national drive in North Korea is the reunification of the Korean peninsula. The Kim’s have always seen the US as the only thing standing in their way. The North has impoverished itself in order to build a military that can defend the government, defeat the US and reunite the Korean people. The current leader was raised on video games and a sense of infallibility. He is a child with a room full of toys and he wants to play. War could have been avoided in the past if the few countries such as China had acted as responsible adults. While the world is told that there are few options left in dealing with the regime in Pyongyang and none good it is coming down to a single option, overwhelming force. All nations will have to be involved and it must be quick and it must be soon.
Yes there will be civilian deaths, but far fewer than if a Nuke lands in LA.

A Modern Witch Hunt


 

salem-witch-hanging2

The President recently called the investigation into Russian interference into the 2016 election and the Trump campaigns collusion with it a witch hunt. This is not the first time the President used the term nor is he the only one to make the comparison. What exactly is a witch hunt and how does the current investigation stack up against past activities that have been called witch hunts. 

 

The most famous case in America is the Salem witch trials in Salem Massachusetts between February 1692 and May 1693. While not the first, last or largest it is the most famous to Americans. A quick recap some young girls in Salem who were exhibiting strange behavior accused local people of being witch’s and possessing them a series of trials took place and many of the accused were convicted, you know the rest.

 

The witch trials have been used in modern times as a cautionary tale to advise against false accusations and the refusal to adhere to due process. The American historian George Lincoln Burr cited the trials as “the Salem witchcraft was the rock on which the theocracy shattered.”[          

 

 The most famous witch hunt is modern times were the McCarty hearings looking, for communist in the government. This, as the Salem trials, spread far and wide looking for any person that could fit into the paranoia of the times. The Salem trials and the McCarty hearing finally floundered by becoming so aggressive that it became clear that there was no basis for the accusations.

 

Now to the current rush to judgment. As I have said in previous posts, the Russian accusations started out as an attempt to deflect the growing appearance of incompetence by Hillary Clinton and, more so, from her apparent criminal actions as Secretary of State regarding mishandling of classified information. From the first charge of the Russians hacking the DNC and releasing incriminating emails through Wikileaks. Following this it was a Russian conspiracy to swing the election to Trump, and finally that the Trump campaign was conspiring with the Russians to influence the election.

 

Now why are we calling the current congressional and FBI investigation a witch hunt? As I said the only thing that is known is the DNC was hacked, likely by the Russians. The rest is pure speculation and innuendo. Much of what is being investigated could be called guilt by association. Paul Manafort who was at one time a Trump campaign manager had also help the former president of Ukraine, an ally of Russia. Paul Manafort is a paid political consultant, this is what he does. This is no established connection between him and any Trump campaign activity that could lead to Russia. The big best known now is former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Flynn met with the Russian ambassador in December, after the election. The accusation is that Flynn spoke about lifting sanctions after the inauguration. He was fired for lying to the Vice-President about that conversation, no connection to Russian hacking or influence. Now in today’s Washington Post is an article about the Presidents son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his connections to Russia. This last is the most recent example of yellow journalism. Which is defined as relying on sensational or exaggerated headlines to sell newspapers. What was the headline:

 

        Jared Kushner now a focus in Russia investigation

 

And what was in the story:

 

        “Investigators are focusing on a series of meetings held by Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-                   law and an influential White House adviser, as part of their probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election and related matters, according to people familiar with the investigation.”

 

 

 

So far so good, a news story, until we get 5 paragraphs in:

 

“The Post has not been told that Kushner is a target — or the central focus — of the investigation, and he has not been accused of any wrongdoing. “Target” is a word that generally refers to someone who is the main suspect of investigators’ attention, though prosecutors can and do bring charges against people who are not marked with that distinction.”

 

OK, is this a story or a witch hunt. Front page in print and leading in the online edition and 5 paragraphs in it reverses the headline.

 

Again, I ask, PLEASE THINK about what you read and hear. I am not sure if I want to call this story part of a witch hunt or just continuation of bad/biased reporting. In fact, it is both so read the whole story and use common sense. To the news media, please just report the news and only once you have confirmed the facts.