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American Politics

Please Think About Consequences

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Gen Michael Flynn (ret) has resigned (or was forced to resign) from the office of Director of National Security. It can be said that either he was sacrificed on the altar of politics or had to go since he lied to, at least, the Vice-President of the United States. In full disclosure, I worked for Gen. Flynn when he was Director of Intelligence (J2) for the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon and again when he was Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. He is an intelligent and fair man, but difficult to work for. As J2 he left early to become CJ2 for Gen McChrystal in Afghanistan and was forced into early retirement from DIA. At least in the later it can be said he ran afoul of entranced bureaucrats. Michael Flynn has a mind of his own and is not afraid to speak out on what he sees as right. This trait serves well for an intelligence officer and a general, but not for a public official.

 

As I said yesterday, the fact that he spoke to the Russian Ambassador prior to Trump assuming office is a nothing. The fact that he lied to the VP and others is the real problem. Yet we will continue to hear about the Russian connection in the Trump administration ad nosism. It is being reported that the White House was informed that Flynn was potentially a subject to Russian blackmail, yet blackmail does not work when everyone knows the secret. He had to go because of his lie, not because of anything else. He lost a high-profile job because of a lie.

 

Yet there are additional consequences of this drama. The world is a dangerous place and getting more dangerous by the day. The loss of someone with Flynn’s talents and the subsequent turmoil at the National Security Council leaves the President partially blind as to what is happening in this dangerous world. With Iran and North Korea playing with nukes and missiles and Russian continuing to threaten eastern Europe this is no time to play politics as usual. With politicians posturing and citizens demonstrating and in some cases rioting, we are playing into Russia’s hand. This is what they wanted by the reports of them interfering into the election and the planting of fake news. This chaos is exactly what the Kremlin wants. This is the consequence of party politics replacing a national agenda.

 

It is time to stop the hysteria over everything the President does or tweets. There are still over 3000 girls and women being held as sex slaves by ISIS, everyday women are stoned to death and homosexuals are hung or thrown off the tops of buildings. North Korea and Iran continue to flaunt the rules of the international community, and the response to all this by America is: Yesterday a group gathered in Chicago and “mooned” a Trump building.

 

PLEASE THINK.

 

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Please Think in Time – Adapting History to Current Crisis’s

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Recently the Islamic Republic of Iran test fired some ballistic missiles in violation of the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions and in violation of the spirit of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. While President Trump was entertaining Japanese PM Abe, North Korea launched a medium range ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan. Both actions are very serious and an obvious test of the new administration. Iran will never stop its development of a Nuclear bomb with the obvious target of Israel, and North Korea is an out of control rouge nation run by a sociopath. Both incidents were reported in the news but did not dominate. What has dominated the headlines is the story of a presidential advisors off handed remark on a talk show that has become seen as an endorsement of the Presidents daughters clothing line. The more serious story is that the new Director of National Security may have spoken out of turn to the Russian Ambassador on handling of sanctions.

The Kelly Anne Conway debate is a side show, as anyone with an ounce of common sense knows, it was an offhanded remark in the spirit of the moment and not a serious endorsement. The problem with Gen Flynn may go deeper. Not because he may have violated the Logan Act, which has never been enforced in 200 years, but by his evasion. Even with that, the degree and severity of any punishment must be less then removal from his position.  

The Logan act was passed in the time of President John Adams because of tensions between the US and France. A Pennsylvania legislator, Dr. George Logan, took it upon himself to intervene, entering negotiations with France which in fact worked to ease the tension. Despite its success, the Federalists in the government where not happy and passed the act which says

“Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.”

 

This law, which has never been enforced, has been violated several times, most recently by the past administration of Barack Obama. Technically President Obama violated the law when while in Iraq he attempted to negotiate a delay in troop withdrawal while President Bush was still in office. In 2008 than, candidate Obama, sent retired Amb. William Miller to Iran to assure them they would be happy with his administration. Before this a little-known aspect of the Cuban Missile Crisis saw the Kennedy White House use ABC News reporter John Scali as a go between for the White House and the Soviet government. This was a violation, since the contact was initiated by the Soviet Ambassador Alexander S. Fomin, through the KGB station chief. The result was a peaceful solution but not before Scali told the Soviets in an unauthorized remark that the US was on the verge of invading Cuba.

 

The Logan act is therefore not relevant now, or ever, the problem is the evasion of the discussion. Not knowing the motives of Gen Flynn for evading the question I know that it is a serious violation of trust, unless he was in fact acting on behalf of the President-Elect. I also know that Flynn is an intelligent person with experiences that the new administration should not give up lightly. This of course would not be the case if Flynn had gone off the ranch and acted alone.

 

Two things I would like to say before the end. One, the amount of coverage this is getting vice the reporting on Iran and North Korea is a problem. Both nations are avowed enemies of the US and if not stopped soon will have the ability to attack us with nuclear weapons. This must be addressed before worrying about Conway or Flynn. Second I suggest if anyone is interested, to read a book by Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May titled – Thinking in Time/The Uses of History for Decision Makers. This book will help you understand that today’s crisis’s have answers in history.  

American Politics

Please Think Why Trump Lost the Appellate Court Decision

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Listening to the reports on the recent 9th circuit court decision on the Immigration executive order, the reasons for the counts ruling are very clear. The courts are biased and the ruling is political with no base in law, or the executive order was a violation of the constitution and a reason to begin impeachment proceedings against the President.

 

The fact is, after having read the decision I can report that is a fairly typical court decision based on the narrowest principles they could find. The actual ruling is:

 

 “To rule on the Government’s motion, we must consider several factors, including whether the Government has shown that it is likely to succeed on the merits of its appeal, the degree of hardship caused by a stay or its denial, and the public interest in granting or denying a stay.  We assess those factors in light of the limited evidence put forward by both parties at this very preliminary stage and are mindful that our analysis of the hardships and public interest in this case involves particularly sensitive and weighty concerns on both sides.  Nevertheless, we hold that the Government has not shown a likelihood of success on the merits of its appeal, nor has it shown that failure to enter a stay would cause irreparable injury, and we therefore deny its emergency motion for a stay.”

 

 In other words, for the rest of us, there is not enough evidence to prove the government would be harmed or that they will ultimately win in court. Other points to understand is that the court did not rule on the merits of the executive order but on whether the lower court had the authority to put in a temporary hold until a full hearing could take place.  All of this has had the effect of stopping the order from being implemented, not on the legality of the order. Courts, to be honest, do not make these stays lightly and only when they believe the plaintiff, in this case the states of Washington and Minnesota, have a chance of winning. I would have to say that, in my opinion, the order exceeds the authority of the President and the government would lose in court. The reason for this is the order included valid Green Card holders, legal residents, and stopped entry to people with valid visas issued before the order. These last where in fact walked back but it was too late. Once something is said it cannot be unsaid. Had the order been simply that the US would not issue new visa’s in those cited countries and put a halt on refugees it would likely not have gotten this far in the court system.  The order then was too broad in scope and rolled out too quickly and without proper vetting.

 

At this point the Trump administration has two options. The first is to continue to proceed through the courts with a likely result of losing, or to vacate the order, which makes any further court actions moot, and issue a more limited order that fits the current law. I hope for the latter but fear the former will be the favored action of the current administration.

 

I now return you to your regularly scheduled extreme mass media reporting.

 

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Please Think about the Truth

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“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.” Thomas Paine, 1776
Just over 240 years ago, Thomas Paine admonished the new country that they would lose all they were fighting for if they give up when times became tough. We need to revisit those words to understand how they are relevant today. We are faced with a dangerous world filled with anti-western hatred and violent rhetoric, the people must not shrink from service to their country. There is, and in fact has been, a strong movement in the United States to blame our country for all the ills that have befallen mankind. Since the mid 60’s in colleges and courtrooms across the country a growing rift has developed between a majority of the country’s population and academic elites which is driving the current frenzy of protests and counter-protests.
While the protest may indicate activism and dedication, for the most part it is crowd mentality and role playing, on both sides. It is my intention through this post to attempt to provide for anyone interested a return to independent thought. I was raised in a typical middle class family that were strong supporters of the Democratic party. My first exposure to politics was when I was barely 8 years old and found myself, through my family, as a sort of gofer for the local Kennedy campaign. Truth be told I was likely more of a pet or mascot. I have transitioned over the years through several ideologies, until I find myself today as a traditional conservative. Again, truth be told, I am likely a little (very little) to the left of what William F. Buckley would call a conservative. I would be much more left of today’s Neo-Conservative orthodoxy. I am also sure I would be considered a right-wing radical by the Progressive liberal wing of the Democratic party. To start, the two ideologies I found the most dangerous to America today are exemplified by Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz. So, let us start the discussion.
Warren and Cruz exemplify a no holds barred, take no prisoners form of politics that accepts no dissent. For this type of politics to be successful it requires a compliant audience and the use of selective and isolated data points or ideological jibber jabber.
All eyes stage left for the most recent example. Warren in, what had to be a blatant act of political opportunism , attempted to read a 30-year-old letter on the floor of the United States Senate that was an attack on another Senator, Jeff Session. As we know the letter was written by Coretta Scott King at the time Sessions had been nominated to the federal bench.
Now taking a trip to the right we have Cruz reminding the world that it was the Democrats who founded the KKK and without saying also enforces the historical fact that it was the Democrats who opposed civil rights legislation up until the mid-1960’s.
As I said above, selective and isolated data points. Both calms are true but do not hold up to any type of scrutiny. In the 30 years since the letter, Sessions became the Attorney General of Alabama, prosecuting Klansman and upholding integration. Then he became a U.S. Senator and has a legislative record that belies claims of racism. While it is true that up until his death Martin Luther King Jr. was a registered Republican there is no denying the Klan is closer to a Cruz ideology then the Democrats.
Most Americans do identify with one of the main political parties and this has made life easier on them. Today however most Americans are politically in the middle and are tired of the extremes and have gotten tired of being bombarded with the half-truths and outright lies of the politicians and one sided news reporting.
I will attempt in the coming weeks to look at the news and political posturing and report the weakness. I will not be a fact checker just a reviewer of commonsense.

American Politics, International Politics

The Trump Immigration Ban, Its Meaning and Impact

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trump

 

Donald Trump has now been President of the United States for a little over a week. Unlike other Presidents he has implemented many of his campaign promises without delay. Of those the most controversial is the enactment of a 90 to 120 day ban on visas and immigration from several nations , and denial of entry to those holding valid Green Cards, until there is a satisfactory process in place to screen potential terrorist from the US. Many in the US and others around the world have protested this ban and legal action has brought a suspicion to parts the order. The problem with the Executive Order is that it goes against everything America has stood for, except self-preservation.
As I write this I must in all honesty tell the reader that this is not the first time something like this has occurred, nor is it the first in modern times. The most recent was a pause in visas for Iraqi refugees by President Obama in 2011. While it is argued that the Obama ban was more limited in scope, only refugees, it was within the same context to stop terrorist from entering the country. Trumps is more wide ranging in that it stopped ALL visa applications, canceled those that were already approved and denied those granted permanent resident status, Green Card. Prior to this however were bans on classes of people that were longer and more dire.
Exclusion of the Chinese:
President Chester A. Arthur, Signed on May 6, 1882. The Chinese Exclusion Act banned “skilled and unskilled laborer’s and Chinese employed in mining” from entering the US for 10 years, it was the first significant law restricting immigration to the country. When it expired it was extended for 10 more years.
Jewish refugees during World War II:
President Franklin D. Roosevelt argued that German Jewish refugees posed a serious threat to the country’s national security. Drawing on fears that Nazi spies could be hiding among the refugees he limited the number of German Jews who could be admitted to 26,000 annually.

Anarchists banned:
In 1903, President Theodore Roosevelt signed the Anarchist Exclusion Act which banned anarchists and others deemed to be political extremists from entering the US.
Communists banned:
Passed by Congress on August 23, 1950, despite being vetoed by President Harry Truman.
The Internal Security Act of 1950 – also known as the Subversive Activities Control Act of 1950 or the McCarran Act – made it possible to deport any immigrants believed to be members of the Communist Party.

Iranians:
President Jimmy Carter cut diplomatic relations with and imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979. He also banned Iranians from entering the country.
Ban on HIV positive persons:
In 1987, under President Reagan, the US banned HIV positive persons from arriving in the US. The laws were influenced by homophobic and xenophobic sentiment towards Africans and minorities.

President Trump has issued a new ban to last from 90 to 120 days that is designed to give time to institute a new process for admitting persons from regions as designated. The problem with this new ban is that it is too broad and was poorly thought-out and executed. The agencies responsible for enforcing the ban were neither consulted nor informed as to the intent or implementation. I would offer the new president a word of advice, you are no longer a CEO of a company but the leader of a nation. While even most companies, preparing a new product roll out, look to get buy-in from stake-holders, it is more incumbent on the president to talk to congressional leadership and his cabinet. I understand from the experience of business this may have been considered a trial balloon or a Beta test but the division in the US today will not allow for this.

Now to the upside to the ban. For too many years the immigration system in the US has been broke, and I do not mean only on the Mexican border. I have friends from the Middle East, especially from Kurdistan, who wait far too long to get visas either for themselves or family, for no other reason than the draconian rules and regulations that make the process glacially slow. For far too many years the congress has bemoaned this fact and failed to do anything about it. The reaction to the ban may be the stimulus needed to “Reboot” the system. Are there legitimate concerns with a too weak or open border process, yes. My maternal grandparents immigrated from Italy when Italian immigrates where not welcomed. My mother-in-law was a refugee from Nazi Germany after the war and even though she was living in a refugee camp the vetting process took a long time and she had to have a relative in the US vouch for her and a job waiting. While she was going through the process many actual war criminals where let into the country. This last is important as we analyze further.

The cause of the ban put in place by President Obama was the discovery of two Iraqis who had made it through the process and were in the US planning to send support to Al-Qaida in Iraqi. The two were in the US as asylum seekers and had been bomb makers in Iraq and their fingerprints were discovered on a piece of an IED. In other words, they should never have been let in. With the individual attacks over the years such as Ft. Hood, San Bernardino, Boston and Florida as well as the problems seen in Europe coupled with a lack of any concrete actions by the Obama administration to act, Donald Trump acted.

The actions taken on the ban, in my opinion, were too harsh, too wide spread and implemented without thought as to impact and consequences. I give thumbs up to intent, protecting the country, but thumbs down on implementation. In business, there is always time to correct a mistake, not always in government actions. In this case, there is time to repair the damage and continue to move forward. Donald Trump is a far different person then was Barack Obama, or most other politicians. He will move too quickly and make mistakes so we need to get used to it. The makeup of the US government with its checks and balances will hold most of the executive actions in place.

As I have said before I was not a supporter of Trump during most of the primaries but did support him in the end as being the best of the chooses given us. No this is not a resounding endorsement but I am confident that his ability to learn far exceeds others and that given time he will find the middle ground that US policy so desperately needs. In the meantime, it’s going to be a wild ride

 

 

 

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President Trump and What to Expect

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On January 20th Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States. To some he is a God send to others the spawn of the devil. For most he will be the 45th President of the United States and their lives will go on uninterrupted. Is Trump the best choice for the job, I would argue the question is irrelevant. The country chose him and he will be in office for the next four years, that’s it. Did he win the popular vote, no, but again not relevant. Most voters in a majority of states elected him and that is how the system is set up. If the votes of just one state are removed from the total, Trump wins the popular vote. Clinton won a total of 65,844,950 votes of which 7,362,496 came from California. Trump won 62,979,879 of which 3,916,209 were from California. Removing the California totals then Trump wins by 581, 212 votes. One aspect and reason for the electoral college is so one state cannot be the determining factor in the results.  Trump won and is the next President of the United States. Why then as we approach the inauguration are so many preemptively striking at the heart of democracy. I have heard so many degrading terms used to describe the President-elect  I have to wonder how a man this evil could raise up to be what he has become. Of all the names Trump has been called I find Fascist to be the most disturbing. Many people have tried to compare him to Hitler (who by the way was a National Socialist) by people that have no idea what the philosophies of a Fascist or National Socialist comprise. The facts speak to only one of the names hurled at Trump to be almost true, misogynist. Although even that is debatable since the definition of misogyny is the hatred or contempt of woman and Trumps has said he believes woman are smarter than men, and proves it by having more woman in senior management positons then other corporations.

The fact is that through all the vitriol spewed out, no one can predict what a Trump presidency will be other than different than the outgoing administration.  It will be more pragmatic and less ideological as Trump is not married to either the Democratic or Republican party. He is in fact what most Americans are, both liberal and conservative. This should give him the ability to work with both parties, but it will not. Not until the leaders of the parties understand that he is not an ideologue but a pragmatist. The fact that he won in states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio are indicators that he is more in touch with what should have been the Democratic party base then the party is. His stand on free trade puts him in opposition to the Republican party and there will be a fight. This is all good.

What we can expect to see is a shakeup of the political status quo and there will be some (figuratively) blood split.  All that can be asked is to give time for the process to begin and for the people to see though what will be a lot of noise and wait. If there is a need to oppose some actions go ahead, but wait for those actions, don’t protest what you perceive as intent, it’s not what you think. And there is the rub, you must begin to THINK ON YOUR OWN.

International Politics

Kurd vs. Kurd, Us vs. Them

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Kurd on Kurd, Us vs. Them

The world is becoming more divided then it has ever been. Much can be attributed to the modern age shrinking the world. News media and internet access allows for more information as well as misinformation flow. Misinformation and disinformation drive the world today. It is normal human instinct to divide into groups. These groups then distance themselves from the other groups. Our group becomes “us” their group becomes “them.” Sooner or later one group becomes jealous of the other and demands what the other has. This leads to war. War in ancient times would lead to the subjugation or annihilation of one group by the other. As man became more accustomed to dealing with “them” different resolutions came to pass. Paying taxes or tribute was enough to allow “us” to leave “them” alone to continue to grow. More recently we have returned to the violence of us vs. them. When one group is of the opinion that they are more than right, but anointed. The most obvious case is ISIS. It is their determination that they are the sole interpreters of Islam. Anyone or any group that thinks otherwise is to be killed. This is justified by the fact that the violent act is done in the name of virtue. It is in fact altruistic. In his book “Not in God’s Name” Rabbi Jonathan Sacks indeed calls it altruistic evil.

Examples of the us and them problems are evident across the world, not to the extent of the ISIS implementation, but bad. Brexit is an example. The people of the United Kingdom chose to leave the European Union based on an “us vs. them” viewpoint.  While it started out as an economic union, the European Common Market, it became a political union in 1993. By the early 2000’s there were already rumblings of discontent due to the rules and regulations coming out of Brussels. The influx of refugees from Syria and North Africa exacerbated the problem because of the EU’s open borders. This at least was the excuse given as the union began to have growing pains. The fact is that it became “Us vs. Them.”  Europe is a continent not a country. It is filled with different languages and cultures. While everything was going along fine there was no problem. Then came the Euro crisis with Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. This opened up the first cracks and this has brought us to today. There are other examples today of “Us vs. Them.” In the United States we have the Black lives Matter movement pitting black America against the police. An in Iraq we have the problem of Kurds vs. Kurds.

The “Us Kurds vs. the Them Kurds” is not new, we only have to go back the 1990’s to revisit the Kurdish Civil war. KDP vs. PUK. In this time regional powers played the Kurds against themselves. Saddam playing the KDP off of the PUK which had Iran’s backing and Turkey pulling strings to keep the thing alive. Today much of the old animosity remains. While the Kurdish people are at the best time in history to declare independence and have a country, they are forming up against themselves. The old social “Us vs. Them” is coming to once more deny the Kurds a homeland. While there is no doubt that much of the feelings are genuine it also must be considered who has the most to gain from this.

In many cases there are legitimate concerns. While it is easy to argue the limits of a Presidential term it is harder to argue rule of law. There is no constitution for Kurdistan, it’s still in draft. With no law there is really no limit. There is an agreement but all sides seem to maneuverer around that whenever they want.  The Kurds are then facing the dilemma of who is right and who is wrong. But when it is “Us vs. Them” the answer is always easy, we are right and they are wrong. When one side or the other entrenches themselves in righteousness it becomes impossible to extricate yourself from a position, it also becomes easier to be manipulated.

The current crisis between KDP vs. PUK/Goran will not lead to a position that either side actually wants. The outcome should be become a unified country, a single entity, then start from scratch to build a nation. This is difficult, it requires that the past be relegated to the past. Masoud Barzani was never the President of an independent Kurdistan, so the past is forgotten. The KDP, PUK, Goran and the rest were never a sitting body for an independent Kurdistan, so a new government is formed. The other options are to do nothing and maintain the status quo, or move on to violence which is the typical end of an entranced “us vs them” problem. A full out split of us and them into a SW Kurdistan and SE Kurdistan. Ultimately these last options will result in a stronger neighbor absorbing the geographic region and the Kurds just go on fighting each other.

Until the Kurdish people can become one and together “Us,” and relegate Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran to the status of “Them” there will not be a chance to become Kurdistan. Until Kurdistan the rest of the arguments amongst the Kurds are meaningless.        

American Politics

2016 Another Political Upheaval in America

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My country, the greatest in the world with an unbelievable diversity in culture and citizens will soon be faced with an impossible choice for its next leader, or so it would seem

The Republican Party started out with 17 candidates running for the nomination. Five withdrew before the primaries even started while another 11 have since dropped out of the race. This leaves Donald Trump the presumptive nominee. On the Democratic Party side, we started with what could be called five viable candidates and are now down to two. Of the two, Hillary Clinton, is the choice of the party elite, and barring unforeseen problems or an indictment, likely the nominee.

Donald Trump was considered a side show and a joke. Coming with what many considered a ton of baggage and no political background, all he had was name recognition and a lot of money. The power elites and the political pundits saw no future in his candidacy and down played early victories. Hillary Clinton on the other hand was the anointed one.  In the beginning she had what was seen as a clear path to the nomination, since none of her announced opposition had the money, standing, name recognition or power base that she did.  

So what went wrong? Trump beat all of the political professionals while Clinton faced, and may still face, an unexpected challenge from an unlikely source, Sen. Bernie Sanders. Following the primary in Indiana Trump defeated Sen. Ted Cruz, his closest rival, by double digits, Sanders then beat Clinton. Up until the week before, the polls had Cruz winning and up until the day of the primary Clinton was in a tight race but still leading. Even with this victory Clinton is still on track to win the nomination based on her past wins and a large number of “Super Delegates” in her pocket. Still it was not the cake walk/ Coronation she was expecting.

Again, what went wrong? While the main stream media ignores the plight of the democrats there is no end to the death notice for the GOP. Within its own ranks there is talk of the end and the need to find the soul of the party. Maybe this is not the end of either party just a restructuring and/or an update.

From time to time there are upheavals in the body politic, such as the recent advent of the tea party on the right and the new progressive movement on the left. In the tumultuous ‘60s we saw Barry Goldwater on the right and George McGovern on the left rise, and then go down in flames.  The existence of political splits is not new in America. The Progressive Party of the US, better known as the Bull Moose party split from the republican party over policy difference between Teddy Roosevelt and William Howard Taft. Then there was the Native American Party also known as the Know-Nothing-Party, which formed to oppose immigration. The immigrants where mostly German and Irish Catholics. Any quick study of these parties will show that many of the issues then are the same as now.

Why then is the world coming to an end for the Republicans and what are the problems being faced by the Democrats. Historically these types of movements die out quickly. Neither of the parties above lasted long and neither of the reform movements of the left or right held power come the next election cycle. The difference today, if there is one, is 24/7 news coverage and social media. The political elites and the talking heads/pundits have not caught up with the change. The ascendance of Trump and the intransigence of Sanders campaign have caught those who should know better off guard. Rather than the party controlling the people the people are controlling the party.  I am very concerned about the reaction of the power elites. From the beginning the Democratic National committee has made no secret about their desire to see Clinton the nominee and has manipulated the process to ensure that outcome. Sanders has managed to challenge the status quo and has made a fight of it. The advantage the Sanders insurgency has over Trump is that he cannot be challenged over his position relative to the political spectrum, he is a liberal. The republican leadership however is having a hard time reconciling their definition of conservative and Trump. Sen. Ted Cruz continued to tout that he was the only “true” conservative in the race. Going so far as to call Trump a New York liberal.

Since Trump has apparently vanquished all others he is now facing a revolution of the republican leadership because he does not fit the ideal. Recently Speaker of the House Paul Ryan said in an interview the reasons he is having trouble backing Trump is that he does not understand “conservative values.” Among these values and principles Ryan pointed out was limited government, the role of the executive, and adherence to the Constitution. These points and some others have been used to show Trumps lack of orthodoxy. I would point out to those conservatives gathering feathers and melting tar that the one overriding principle of the country is the voice of the people. I must tell the Republican elites that Trump won the primaries and the people may be changing the definition of conservatism. 

Jonah Goldberg, a senior editor for the National Review in a past article quoted a conservative stalwart of the past, Russell Kirk, author of such books as “The Conservative Mind: From Burke to Elliot,” stating “Russell Kirk, who could not define conservatism in a paragraph, much less a sentence, would consider it folly to even try. Kirk wrote, “Conservatism is not a fixed and immutable body of dogma.” Rather it is a recognition that life often pits some values against others, and that men are not always brilliant at sorting out which value should trump which in any given situation. As Edmund Burke noted, “The nature of man is intricate; the objects of society are of the greatest possible complexity; and therefore no simple disposition or direction of power can be suitable either to man’s nature or to the quality of his affairs.”

In a similar vein William F. Buckley was asked in an interview if he agreed with the following:   Q. Book publisher Henry Regnery once said, “Conservatism is not a fixed and immutable body of dogma, and conservatives inherit from Burke a talent for re-expressing their convictions to fit the times.” Buckley agreed whole heartedly. So what’s up with today’s conservatives?

Nothing is the answer, it’s the so called conservative leadership that is the problem. While Clinton fights the “true” liberals of her party in her march toward the nomination we hear of many on the left bailing out and promising, at the least, not to vote. The well-known conservatives are doing the same and much worse, they are actively seeking an alternative candidate to run as a third party conservative. In other words, they are doing everything in their power to elect Hillary Clinton. The logic is that she will be so bad that they get to pick the candidate in 2020 after a disastrous four years of Clinton.

The irony of this is that major conservatives such as Bill Kristol are talking to Mitt Romney as a possible savior of the conservative cause and third party candidate. You remember Romney, he lost as the republican party candidate four years ago because 3 million conservatives sat out the election, as they are threatening to do this year. Romney is also the person who refused to run during the republican primaries. The Romney who held so much sway over the republican rank and file that after he came out and attacked Trump no one listened and Trump just continued to roll forward.

Many writers are asking what has happened to the party of Lincoln and saying things like Clinton is more conservative than Trump. I will remind those that the party of Lincoln was a third party that was considered the left wing progressive party of the time and stayed in power until FDR. The democrats did not begin there swing to the left until FDR and still were mostly conservative until JFK in the 1960’s.

What we are seeing today then may be nothing more than another swing and realignment of ideals. The stance conservatism of Goldwater day’s finally giving way to a more pragmatic branch of conservative. The beginning may well be traced back to Reagan and the Bush’s. The democrats on the other hand are holding to dogma at least 50 years out of date. What we are then actually seeing is what has always made America great, the people are taking charge and making changes. Power elites should not worry, they will adapt to the changes and once more be in charge as the people go back to their lives, with the warning that they can do this again, as they have done before.       

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A Plea to Senate Democrats

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An open letter to the gang of 42

 capitol

Ladies and gentlemen: I understand your need to play to your parties’ elite and your slavish devotion to the President, but your support of the executive agreement now before you must transcend politics. There are enough countries on this planet that have nuclear weapons there is no reason to add another, especially one that has shown no regard to the lives of its citizens or those of the region. Beyond the nuclear weapon aspect is the fact that Iran is an exporter of terrorism. I grant you that they have had tremendous success with what they have but this agreement will give them more money and weapons.

You must look past the claims that no better deal could be had or that it is this deal or war. Neither is true. The leadership and government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has never made any secret of its policies and they have never  acted  in accordance with international norms or laws. Iran’s raison d’etre is the exportation of the Islamic revolution is the destruction of Israel and all of western civilization

You must accept two items as articles of faith, Iran has no intention of living up to its end of the agreement and there is no intelligence service on earth that will be able to tell beyond the shadow of a doubt that Iran is cheating. We have been surprised by India, Pakistan and North Korea with their ascension into the nuclear club. Our intelligence assessment have been faulty on a number of issues and we will have no way of keeping tabs on Iran.

Congress has made a number of decisions that are based on political expediency. Some are good, some are bad, but for the bad there is always time to adjust or get a do-over. Ladies and gentlemen this is not one of those. If you get this one wrong it could mean millions die.

Please think long and hard. At the least allow open debate and let the people listen. Don’t get this wrong, the stakes are too high.

International Politics

Iran, the Deal and Aylan

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A recent Column of mine, reproduced below, spoke to the impact the Iranian deal will have on the region including Kurdistan. Today I would like to expand on this in light of the death of 3 year old Aylan Kurdi. I think first off we need to restructure the facts. Aylan and his family are Kurds from Kobane and did leave the village. However they left three years ago to go to Turkey after fleeing the fighting. They had lived in Damascus, then Aleppo, before going to Kobane. What this means is that the start of this tragedy is directly related to the Assad regime and its Iranian supporters. Without Iran’s direct support to Damascus it is likely the regime would have fallen and young Aylan would have been born in a time of peace. It has now become likely that the executive agreement President Barrack Obama presented to the US Congress will be enacted, not by congress whose majority rejects it, not by the people of the United States, whose majority reject it but because 34 Democratic Senators will allow the president to have a sustained veto. The fighting will go on as 34 senators allow the release of billions of dollars and remove the sanctions on the largest exporter of terrorism in the world today. There have been and will be many more Aylan’s, not only in Syria or Turkey but in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. Unless another becomes this visible most will not be seen and the tragedy will go unnoticed. I repost this as a reminder of what is happening and a warning of what will become.

How will the Iran deal impact Kurdistan?

Posted on NRT English 7/22/15

The recent agreement between Iran and the E3/EU+3 will have long term consequences on the region, including Kurdistan. The aspect of stopping Iran’s march to a nuclear weapon aside, the removal of sanctions will allow an increase in Iranian mischief in the region. The world at large has taken little notice of Iran’s brutal treatment of its Kurdish population, and will be even less concerned once commercial trade is reopened.

The immediate impact to Kurdistan will come from the anticipated $150 billion windfall that will come from the immediate release of sanctions.  Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced the increase of the budget for the IRGC from $6.5 billion to $9 billion and the agreement removes the IRGC and its commanders from the sanctions list. This will allow the IRGC greater capability to arm and control Shia militias in Iraq, and further reduce Iraqi government control of its internal security.

How does this effect Kurdistan? This strengthening of Iranian influence will have a serious impact on the relationship the KRG has with the government in Baghdad. The KRG budget is busted and Kurds across the region are under increasing pressure from ISIS. The strategy of Iran seems to be to maintain chaos in the region in order to justify its military assistance to Shia militants, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as in Iraq. To this end, it is in Iran’s best interest to keep ISIS a threat to the region, in a defensive position, but not defeated. Kurdish Peshmerga forces have shown a great ability to stop and defeat ISIS fighters but are potentially running short of supplies, with Baghdad under increasing influence of Tehran, resupply for the Peshmerga is doubtful.  European nations have lately filled the gap but some of the bigger donors, such as Germany, will soon be looking to reestablish commercial ties with Iran, which may leverage this desire to reduce support for the Kurds.

Beyond the crisis for the Peshmerga, Iraqi Kurdistan is under increasing internal social and political pressure. With a faltering economy and calls on the current leadership to become more democratic, the road is open for Iran to ferment discord. With an influx of money to one of the political parties and a promise of military aid, Iran could weaken and split Kurdistan while keeping attention on the external threat of ISIS. Turkey would also likely join in with an eye to increased ties to the Iranian energy sector and the increase in natural gas from Iran. If Turkey can benefit economically from the removal of sanctions and see a reduction in Kurdish influence, it would solve two problems at once.

Whether or not Iran keeps to its deal to reduce it capability to produce a nuclear device is years down the road. The impact of sanctions relief however is imminent and for Kurdistan potentially dangerous. If the non-nuclear aspects of the agreement were removed, it would benefit the region and Kurdistan